Godfather IV: The Euro Saga

Category : Finance

Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Nicholas Sarkozy did their best impression of Vito Corleone in their rendition of the Godfather today. The leaders of Germany and France respectively were able to broker a deal to save Greece from falling into bankruptcy by basically passing on a big chunk of the country’s debt to private banks holding Greek bonds.

For those of you who don’t quite understand what is happening in Europe, let me try my best at simplifying this mess. Think of Greece as a company whose operating costs are much greater than their sales (Greece’s debt was 160% of its Gross Domestic Product). So what does a company do to stay in business while it loses money “temporarily?” Borrow! Greece did just that by selling tons of bonds to banks, but it got to the point where banks stop lending. Unfortunately, Greece was still in a pickle and had no one to lean on…so it turned to its family members. In this case, that family is the Eurozone, which is an economic union of 17 European countries. Now this family, just like any family, has a momma and poppa who provide for the little ones. The Momma and Poppa of the Eurozone is Germany and France. Now these responsible parents set up a savings account called the EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility) in case any member of the family was in a bind and desperate for cash. Now while each family member was supposed to chip in to this big piggy bank, Momma and Poppa did most of the work by guaranteeing nearly 50% of the One Trillion Euro fund (about 1.4 billion dollars). But because of the losses sustained during the global recession, only 250 billion was left. So when little ole Greece came asking for more than half of what was left to pay off the banks it owed, what did good ole Momma and Poppa do? True to mobster form, Merkel and Sarkozy paid a visit to those creditors.

Picture an old Italian restaurant in the backstreets of Sicily. The restaurant is dimly lit, tables are spaced too close to each other, and there’s not a single patron in sight. In the far corner table is a man well dressed, hair parted to the side, wearing black-rimmed glasses. His briefcase is laid out on the black and white checkered tablecloth with a bunch of documents littered in fine print too small for the eye to see. In walks a chubby middle-aged woman and a skinny gray-haired man with an evil grin cheek to cheek. They walk up to the corner table and have what is normally called a “sit-down” in this part of town. After exchanging a few pleasantries, Momma picks up the documents in front of the well-dressed man and tears it to pieces. The well-dressed man immediately becomes hostile, but Poppa simply points his finger and the man is staring down the barrel of a 357 magnum being held by none other than the waiter. Momma pulls out a single sheet of paper from her coat pocket and says “sign it or else!” And just like that Greece wiped out $100 billion Euros off its debt.

While it is a bit dramatized, this Italian restaurant scene is basically what happened in some conference room today in Europe. Leaders from Germany and France met with these private banks that were owed hundreds of billions of Euros by Greece and somehow “voluntarily” accepted a 50% cut in its bond investments to reduce Greece’s debt by 100 billion Euros. They “voluntarily” gave up 100 billion Euros? Who are these guys kidding? Can you imagine what was really said in that boardroom? My guess was “take a 50% loss or 100% loss, which is it?” {With Germany and France’s tanks behind them and Blackhawk helicopters hovering above, lol).

Now what about the rest of the money owed? You think Germany and France are going to use that piggy bank? HELL NO! Just like a famous mobster once said, “never use your own money to start a business,” Momma and Poppa followed suit. Instead of dipping in to what’s left of the EFSF, Momma and Poppa created some perks and incentives to anyone daring enough to invest and repair the Eurozone’s debt crisis. Essentially, they are hoping China will take the bait and throw money at them and odds are they’re right.

And Momma and Poppa will be back sitting in the corner table of that old Sicilian restaurant puffing on big fat cigars toasting to a “hard” day’s work.